Election headwinds are blowing hard for Calif. Dems. The Central Valley is the eye of the storm.
(Original Story Published On The SJ Valley Sun - 11/1/2022)
Things are starting to tilt away from Democrats in California’s battleground districts as the state continues its tradition of breaking against national trends. As I write this, Democrats are slightly over-performing expectations in the national early vote based solely on modeled party data from data company Target Smart. However, one has to take that with a grain of salt because not all registered Democrats will vote for Democrats, and not all registered Republicans will vote for Republicans. Also, true Independents and NPP voters across the country are breaking to the right this election if you believe the vast majority of polls.
With the failure of the national polling industry and the mainstream media to accurately poll elections the last four cycles, I could forgive anyone for not believing in polls, regardless of their political leanings.
People should refrain from using the Early Vote to try and predict election outcomes. Instead, it should be one data point to make a comprehensive analysis.
Unfortunately, far too many conservative bloggers and pundits are taking premature victory laps in deep blue California at this hour. At the end of the day, the only math that counts in elections is the votes counted after the polls close on election night.
That being said, there are enough warning signs for Democrats in Early Voting, Polls, Current and Historical Trends, and the movement of late-breaking and undecided voters in California at this hour that the California Democratic Party should be concerned about any strong election day turnout. Something that Republican voters are telling pollsters they are very enthusiastic about doing. Even so, it is always better to have votes in the bank than hope they turn up on election day. That is a slight advantage to the Democrats in California. A strong turnout on election day would probably indicate GOP over-performance in California’s final expected election results.
Should a ‘Red Wave’ actually form in California, it will likely start in the Central Valley, and should it continue to rise, the wave’s high water mark may not ebb until it reaches parts of Orange County, San Diego, and even the Central Coast at this point.
The Democrats feel that even in the 26th Congressional District, on California’s central coast, is in play based on their late spending. If that is true, it would be unwelcome news for Democrats in the 9th, 13th, 22nd, 27th, 47th, and 49th Congressional districts.
The hard facts are these: Based on all fundamentals we know of how to predict elections, none (and I mean absolutely none) of the fundamentals favor the Democrats in this election. It is possible (if not probable) that Republicans will pick up congressional seats in intensely blue California for the second election in a row.
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