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ELECTION 2022 OUTLOOK:
Final Update 11/8/22 @10:00 AM PST
Projections FOR 2022 MID-TERMS:
U.S. SENATE: Republicans Favored To Take Control
(59% Chance)
Current Projection: (R+2 Seats)
Republicans - 52 Seats
Democrats - 47 Seats & VP
Run-Off Projection - 1 (GA)
U.S. HOUSE: Republicans Favored To Take Control
(91% Chance)
Current Projection: (R+27 Seats)
Republicans - 240 Seats Democrats - 195 Seats
GOVERNORS: Republicans
Favored To Retain Majority
(96% Chance)
Current Projection: (R+1 Seats)
Republicans - 29 States Democrats - 21 States
GRADING THE POLLS:
(TOP 10 / BOTTOM 10)
OUR TOP TEN RATED POLLS:
Poll Name: Raw Bias: Accuracy: Rating:
1. IBD-TIPP R - 0.7 98% 9.6
2. Big Data Poll R - 0.5 93% 9.3
3. Atlas Intel D - 0.4 92% 9.1
4. Susquehanna D - 0.3 83% 8.7
5. Trafalger Group (R) R - 1.4 81% 8.3
6. NBC D - 0.7 78% 8.1
7. Emerson D - 1.0 79% 7.9
8. Monmouth D - 1.1 75% 7.2
9. WSJ D - 1.2 75% 7.1
10. Mason-Dixon D - 1.4 74% 7.0
OUR BOTTOM TEN RATED POLLS:
Poll Name: Raw Bias: Accuracy: Rating:
1. Center Street (N/A) (N/A) Banned
2. Survey Monkey D - 5.7 68% 1.7
3. Surveyable D - 5.5 71% 1.9
4. Change Research (D) D - 5.3 70% 2.1
5. Data for Progress(D) D - 5.0 72% 2.3
6. Franklin & Marshall D - 4.1 74% 3.0
7. Quinnipiac D - 3.4 70% 3.3
8. NPR/PBS/Marist D - 2.8 75% 3.8
9. Morning Consult D - 2.5 74% 3.9
10. YouGov D - 2.4 72% 4.7
(To be rated Election Recon would have analyzed a minimum of 10 polls in the last four cycles.)
Election Recon Model Generic Ballot Projection:
Current Projection: (R + 3.3%)
Republicans - 51.1%
Democrats - 47.8%
Other - 1.1%
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